eMarketer's Predictions for 2009

Here is what eMarketer's predictions are for 2009.

I think they are too optimistic. I would be surprised if the overall online advertising growth rates exceed 6%. I think estimates on video ads, display ads are both optimistic.

The optimistic me thinks search is the only online advertising channel that will show double digit growth.

Here is the eMarketer article:

http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?id=1006813

eMarketer's Predictions for 2009

DECEMBER 16, 2008

What lies ahead in the new year?

David Hallerman, Senior Analyst

Online Ad Spending: Still Solid Choice

Video ad spending will run counter to overall economic developments, rising by 45% in 2009 to reach $850 million. Two key factors support this trend.

First, the sharp escalation of professional video content on the Web—mainly from TV networks—is creating a viable base for brand marketers.

Second, even though most advertisers are increasingly cautious with their budgets, they still need to reach online audiences and woo their shrinking wallets with messages that reach their hearts and minds—hence, more video.

 Search marketing spending will grow by 14.9% in 2009, to $12.3 billion. Search marketing is not recession-proof, but it is recession-resistant. Two basic assumptions support this eMarketer projection. Search is highly measurable, so it will maintain its place in many budgets and increase in some others, as advertisers look for secure and effective methods to combat fear in an economic meltdown.

Also, consumers—who monetize search ads by deciding whether or not to click—will take money off the table by shopping less, and put money back on by searching for deals. Although search advertising will grow less in 2009 than in any previous year, its inherent strength will mean greater spending gains than for any other major form of advertising, whether online or offline.

Total US Internet ad spending will increase to $25.7 billion in 2009, an 8.9% growth rate. That will be the lowest year-over-year increase for online advertising ever. Yet it will still be a robust increase compared with nearly all other media.

Comments

[Craig]

So, are big spending TV networks going to crowd out the small timers?